Analyzing a team's NCAA Division I softball schedule is hardly an exact science but we took our best shot and came out with some surprising -- and not so surprising -- findings.
It's no coincidence that the two strongest schedules this season will be again played by perennial powers Fresno State and BYU. The Bulldogs, riding a national-record 30 straight NCAA Tournament appearances, and the Cougars, who've been to seven consecutive NCAA tourneys, have two of the most powerful non-conference schedules in the country.
And that's precisely why Fresno State and BYU enter the 2012 season on impressive NCAA Tournament streaks. Both have annually scheduled the best opponents they can find, won more than their fair share of games, and the high RPI numbers have followed. Last season, the two finished neck and neck in the final RPI with the Bulldogs leading at No. 36, followed closely by the Cougars at No. 37.
This year, the two have added some twists. BYU is in a one-and-done season as a WAC affiliate member before transitioning to the Pacific Coast Softball Conference in 2013. Fresno State is in its final season as a WAC member before moving to the Mountain West, effective July 1. And there's more: The Bulldogs and Cougars will see a lot of each other this season with remarkably similar schedules.
Fresno State and BYU will be the only WAC teams to participate in the two strongest in-season tournaments in the country -- the Cathedral City Classic near Palm Springs in late February, and the Judi Garman Classic in Fullerton in mid-March. If that wasn't enough, they'll also e
ach be a part of the San Diego Classic on the first weekend of March before playing each other in a 3-game conference series in early April.The common opponents for the Cougars and Bulldogs are numerous and impressive. Each will face defending NCAA champion Arizona State, 8-time national champ Arizona, 2-time Super Regional qualifier Oregon, defending Big West champ Pacific, DePaul, San Diego State, Long Beach State, Penn State, Purdue, St. Joseph's, Cal State Northridge and UC Santa Barbara, among others.
What sets Fresno State slightly ahead of BYU in terms of schedule strength is the overall depth of the slate. Coach Margie Wright's mantra for over a quarter century has always been that you have to play the best to be the best. This season is no different.
The Bulldogs play a staggering 31 non-conference games against opponents that finished in the Top 150 of last season's RPI. For those counting, that leaves just five teams on the 2012 schedule (Sacramento State, UC Riverside, Charlotte, Toledo and Santa Clara) that did not finish among the top 150 in the RPI.
BYU's 10 games against teams outside of the top 150 ranks as the second-fewest among WAC teams. As long as they pick up some key wins along the way, the Cougars and Bulldogs have put themselves in strong position already merely with their scheduling.
After Fresno State and BYU, New Mexico State's slate ranks as third strongest. The Aggies will play an impressive eight games against teams that finished in last year's RPI top 25 and a total of 21 games against teams in the RPI top 150. However, nine contests against teams that ranked 200th or worse a year ago dot the schedule.
Utah State and Louisiana Tech play schedules that are similar in overall strength, with only mild differences. While the Lady Techsters play more games against both the top 25 and top 50 than the Aggies, Utah State has fewer games against lower echelon opponents ranked outside the top 150.
San Jose State will face a schedule that looks top-heavy and a bit unbalanced at this point. In short, there are a lot of great opponents and some traditionally bad ones, and not a whole lot in between. Based on last season's RPI, the Spartans face the most top 25 teams of any WAC squad, yet also face significantly more sub-200 ranked teams. San Jose State has a whopping 16 non-conference games against teams that ranked 200th or worse a year ago.
Hawai'i, once again, has an interesting schedule that seems eerily similar to last year. A season ago, we mentioned in our preview that the Rainbow Wahine didn't appear to be scheduling strong enough to ensure an at-large NCAA bid should it become necessary. We took some heat for calling out a preseason Top 10 team like Hawai'i was at that point, but in the end, we were right.
Despite a strong 37-18 record last year and after spending more than half the season ranked in the top 25 of the human polls, Hawai'i didn't receive an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. A final RPI of 55, combined with a fourth place finish in the WAC standings, was their undoing last year and this season's slate has some warning signs.
With the NCAA selection committee's emphasis on how a team fares both on the road and in neutral site contests, Hawai'i has few chances for marquee wins away from home. In fact, the Wahine play just two non-conference games away from the islands against teams that finished in the RPI top 100 last year. A neutral-site game in Las Vegas against Memphis (44th in the RPI) and a road contest at Utah (RPI of 94) are it.
The bottom line for Hawai'i? Like last year, there isn't much margin for error if an NCAA at-large bid is needed.
Nevada faces two teams (Stanford and Houston) that finished in the top 25 a year ago. The Wolf Pack have 15 non-conference games against the top 150 with an option for at least one additional game against a top opponent at the Stanford Nike Invitational in February.
Ranking the schedules
1. Fresno State
The Bulldogs face five Pac-12 teams and 15 non-conference games against teams from BCS conferences.
2. BYU
The Cougars and Fresno State share 12 common non-conference opponents.
3. New Mexico State
The Aggies are facing probably their toughest schedule in school history.
4. Louisiana Tech
The Lady Techsters' nine games against the RPI top 50 is fourth most in the WAC.
5. Utah State
The Aggies play 16 games against last year's final RPI top 100.
6. San Jose State
The Spartans face a schedule that's very strong at the top, but weak at the bottom.
7. Hawai'i
The Wahine play three non-conference games against last year's top 25... and all three come on the same weekend in March.
8. Nevada
The Wolf Pack play two teams that advanced to Super Regional play in 2011.
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